New player deposit bonuses that have a positive expected value (+EV) are detailed on this page. Bonuses having a positive expected value (+EV) are designed to be cleared without incurring a financial loss. In any form of gambling, there is always an expectation of long-term gain or loss, and this is known as “expected value.”
Keep in mind that EV is not an assurance of success. The expected value of a casino bonus is only a reflection of the average result of numerous spins. Since new player bonuses are one-time-only, it is impossible to predict whether you will make or lose money.
However, these bonuses make sense from a purely mathematical perspective. In the long run, most new player bonuses are a bad investment. Most bonuses aren’t worth taking advantage of because you have to make a sizable stake before you can cash out. The house edge typically eats up more of your bankroll than the bonus is worth.
In my analysis, I will assume that you are clearing these bonuses by playing blackjack at a house edge of 0.65%. However, not all casino bonuses can be used to play blackjack towards clearing. If you try to clear these bonuses using a different game, you may get different results. The odds of winning at blackjack are high.
All EVs are based on an assumed $100 initial investment. Your initial deposit will determine whether the EV rises or falls (but is always positive).
Note 2: You can cash out any of the following bonuses by playing blackjack. Slots bonuses are usually always -EV, thus I didn’t count them.
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The Methods I Used to Determine These Predictions
How to determine the true value of a casino bonus is explained in great depth here. As a quick summary, I added together all of the bonuses’ wagering requirements and multiplied by blackjack’s house edge. After clearing the bonus, this final sum indicates how much money you may anticipate keeping.
In order to derive these probabilities, I relied on two assumptions. To begin, I counted on a deposit of $100 from you. It was necessary on my part because the wagering requirements are always a set number of times the size of your initial deposit.
Second, I presumed you’d be playing blackjack, where the house has a 0.65% advantage. This is the typical house advantage for a player that follows optimal blackjack strategy.
The outcome of the EV is independent of the magnitude of your initial contribution. Deposits of greater amounts will yield greater net amounts, but the percentage returns will stay unchanged. Similarly with lesser amounts of money.
My presumption of an edge at blackjack is weaker. The house edge you’ll notice in blackjack will vary from one establishment to the next and will be determined by the game’s specific rules. The online casino’s edge isn’t always clearly displayed. However, I looked into it as much as possible so that I could give you an approximation.
All things considered, these EV estimates are not far off. They aren’t perfect, but I have no doubt that they’ll serve our goals just fine. The EV of a single bonus won’t fluctuate significantly even if the house edge fluctuates by a few tenths of a percent.
Please read the Agreement.
Seriously. Before accepting any bonus, make sure you read the fine print. All of the casino policies displayed here pass my inspection. Nonetheless, I think you should read them on your own. Please double-check that they are still relevant to your play style and that nothing has changed since I last updated this document.
So, I was looking into other US-accepting casinos to see if any of them offered +EV blackjack bonuses. One gambling establishment’s bonus terms and conditions seemed favorable, until I saw a restriction limiting bonus-clearing wagers to $6.50 or less per hand. Many people who frequent casinos would never do something like that.
All of the aforementioned casino bonuses are non-cashable. This means that the bonus funds must be used within the casino and cannot be withdrawn. While it’s true that +EV bonuses are helpful (they increase your odds of winning real money), they don’t quite compare to the allure of +EV cashable bonuses.
No longer are there +EV cashable bonuses. Blackjack players used to be able to clear bonuses and win significant money practically every time. The casinos eventually figured it out and modified their policies in response.